NOAA Research to Advance Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal Phenomena
In FY 2016, the MAPP program solicits research proposals to improve the understanding of predictability and the potential to advance the prediction of phenomena occurring on S2S time scales. Such phenomena include, but are not limited to, the MJO and associated midlatitude teleconnections, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), stratospheric flow regimes, and atmospheric blocking episodes. Projects will use global numerical model experiments for sensitivity studies and/or reforecast datasets such as the S2S Prediction Project database, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble hindcast dataset, the WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble database, and the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE) dataset, and observational datasets for diagnostic studies to explore how prediction of S2S phenomena is influenced by various aspects of the prediction system set-up, including: (i) model resolution of various prediction system components; (ii) initialization of, and coupling between, Earth system components; (iii) model physics; (iv) generation, number, and resolution of ensemble members; (v) reforecast length and calibration methods; or (vi) multi-model combination. New model system experiments (if any) are encouraged to follow elements of the protocol for experimentation on subseasonal prediction as appropriate. Researchers are encouraged to develop and apply novel verification metrics tailored for subseasonal prediction (e.g., the probability of a large-scale flow regime transition) in addition to applying verification traditionally used for seasonal prediction.