Date

Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
July Report (Based on June Data)
2010 Sea Ice Outlook
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Outlook submission deadline: Wednesday, 14 July 2010
Please note that the submission information has changed from previous
months.

For further information about the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

Or contact: Helen Wiggins
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

Or: Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the July
SIO report (based on June data). We encourage past and new contributors
to participate.

The SIO is an international effort to provide a community-wide summary
of the expected September arctic sea ice minimum. Monthly reports
released throughout the summer synthesize community estimates of the
current state and expected minimum of sea ice at both pan-arctic and
regional scales.

The submission deadline for the July report is Wednesday, 14 July 2010.

Please note that the submission information has changed from previous
months

All Outlook Submissions should be sent to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at
helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as relevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

A Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website - we will not edit your submission and
will not post Word documents.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
    ice extent (in million square kilometers). For reference, the arctic sea
    ice monthly mean extent for September 2009 was 5.36 million square
    kilometers, the third lowest in the satellite record.

  2. Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
    two or three sentences.

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara and Barents Seas
- High Arctic (north of 85N)
- Greenland Sea
- Baffin Bay -- Labrador Sea
- Hudson Bay

Shipping Routes
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk -- Churchill)

  1. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
    than those of summer 2009.

  2. Outline of Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
    estimate.

  3. Estimate of Forecast Skill (Optional)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

  4. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

All Outlooks should be sent to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at helen [at] arcus.org.

The submission deadline for the July report is Wednesday, 14 July 2010.

FOR MORE INFORMATION
Further information about the Sea Ice Outlook is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

Or by contacting:

Hajo Eicken, Core Integration Group
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Helen Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office
Email: helen [at] arcus.org