Date

REMINDER: Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May Data)
2010 Sea Ice Outlook
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Outlook submission deadline: Monday, 31 May 2010

For further information about the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

Or contact: Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Or: Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the
first SIO monthly report of the 2010 season, to be released in June
(based on May data).

The submission deadline for the first report is Monday, 31 May 2010.
Guidelines for submitting a pan-arctic or regional outlook are included
below.

We encourage anyone interested in arctic sea ice to participate in the
Sea Ice Outlook for summer 2010. The Outlook is not a formal forecasting
system, but a forum to discuss ideas and the various factors that
influence sea ice. Submissions are valued for their concepts, not their
numerical scores. Personal opinions are as important as model results.

The 2010 summer sea ice loss has opposing factors that may produce a
higher or lower September sea ice minimum compared to previous years.
These factors include:
- A slow freeze up;
- A sea ice extent in April typical of the 1990's; however, the extent
was concentrated in marginal seas with less influence on the summer
central Arctic;
- Spring winds restricted Fram Strait ice export;
- Considerable second and third year sea ice is now present in the
central Arctic; and
- A long-term downward trend in sea ice volume.

Send us your ideas about the coming season by submitting an Outlook.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
    ice extent (in million square kilometers). For reference, the arctic sea
    ice monthly mean extent for September 2009 was 5.36 million square
    kilometers, the third lowest in the satellite record.

  2. Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
    two or three sentences.

Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the word OUTLOOK in
the subject line, to:
Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

    Arctic Regions

    • Sea of Okhotsk
    • Bering Sea
    • Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
    • East Siberian-Laptev Seas
    • Kara and Barents Seas
    • High Arctic (north of 85N)
    • Greenland Sea
    • Baffin Bay -- Labrador Sea
    • Hudson Bay

    Shipping Routes

    • Northwest Passage
    • Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
    • Arctic Bridge (Murmansk -- Churchill)

  2. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phenological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
    than those of summer 2009.

  3. Outline of Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
    estimate.

  4. Estimate of Forecast Skill (Optional)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty,
    or error associated with your prediction.

  5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

Regional Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the words
REGIONAL OUTLOOK in the subject line, to:
Adrienne Tivy
Email: ativy [at] iarc.uaf.edu

The submission deadline for the June report is Monday, 31 May 2010.

REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON RELEVANT DATA RESOURCES
We are also soliciting data resources (e.g., web links to sea ice
products, data sources, graphics) that may be useful to Outlook
contributors; these resources will be listed on the SIO website. If you
have a resource to contribute, please email the information to Helen
Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office at ARCUS: helen [at] arcus.org.

FOR MORE INFORMATION
Further information about the Sea Ice Outlook is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

More information about the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook reports is
available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/siwo.

Or by contacting:
Jim Overland, Core Integration Group Lead
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Hajo Eicken, Core Integration Group
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Helen Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office
Email: helen [at] arcus.org