Date

Second Call for Sea Ice Outlooks
June Report: Outlook Based on May Data
2009 Sea Ice Outlook
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Outlook submission deadline: Monday, 1 June 2009

For further information about the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook

Or contact:
Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Or:
Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are now soliciting outlooks for the first SIO monthly report
of the 2009 season, to be released in early June. Regional Outlooks are
also encouraged. The deadline for submissions is Monday, 1 June 2009.
Further information about the SIO is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

SUBMITTING AN OUTLOOK
Outlook contributions should include:
1. Extent Projection
Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
ice extent (in million square kilometers). For reference, the arctic sea
ice monthly mean extent for September 2008 was 4.7 million square
kilometers; in September 2007, it was 4.3 million square kilometers.

  1. Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  2. Rationale
    Please include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the word OUTLOOK in
the subject line, to:
Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUBMISSIONS
Regional Outlooks will include a summary of data and observations
relevant to a particular region in order to provide an indication of
seasonal ice evolution at a finer scale than the pan-arctic Outlook.
Regional Outlooks should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the five main arctic regions the outlook applies to:

    • Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas;
    • Northwest Passage (please specify which specific route you are
      referring to);
    • Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route);
    • Barents-Greenland Seas, or
    • High Arctic (north of 85N).

  2. Estimate of the Ice Season Evolution
    Provide an estimate of the ice season evolution (including prevalent or
    expected ice types) from now to the time of the summer sea ice minimum
    in September. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    lighter or heavier than those of last summer (2008). Ice condition
    assessment categories are:
    i. Light Ice Conditions - Melt onset is earlier than normal, ice retreat
    is more rapid than normal, and / or ice concentrations over the course
    of the season are below average. Ideally, the outlook would be more
    specific about which of these applies and also indicate whether the
    assessment references a specific activity, such as different types of
    ship traffic, subsistence hunting, etc.
    ii. Medium Ice Conditions - Neither heavy nor light ice concentrations.
    iii. Heavy Ice Year - Melt onset is later than normal, ice retreat is
    slower than normal, and / or ice concentrations over the course of the
    season are above average. Ideally, the outlook would be more specific
    about which of these applies.

  3. Assessment of the Timing of Freeze-up
    i. What is your general assessment of the timing of freeze-up?
    ii. Will the onset of ice formation in the fall be earlier or later than
    normal?
    iii. Are any anomalies anticipated in the regional pattern of freeze-up?

  4. Outline of Methods / Techniques (Optional)
    i. What is the regional outlook based on (statistical model, heuristic
    approach, traditional knowledge, etc.)?

  5. Improving Outlook Accuracy (Optional)
    i. What information would be needed to improve the accuracy of your
    Regional Outlook?

Regional Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the words
REGIONAL OUTLOOK in the subject line, to:
Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

The submission deadline for the June report is Monday, 1 June 2009.
Further information about the Sea Ice Outlook is available at the
website: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

Or by contacting:
Jim Overland, Core Integration Group Lead
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Hajo Eicken, Core Integration Group
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Helen Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office
Email: helen [at] arcus.org