Friday, 12 May 2023 - Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook

Date: 12 May 2023

Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus

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Synopsis High pressure over the Bering Strait persists through Friday night before a low from the southwest approaches the west coast. It will bring increased southwest-south winds and primarily rain through the weekend and possibly another round of rain through early next week.

Near St. Lawrence Island

Open water has greatly expanded since last week, stretching from 40 miles (64 km) northeast of Gambell to up to 130 miles (210 km) from the south coast of the island. There are several areas of open pack ice 40 to 70 miles (64 to 113 km) southwest to southeast of Gambell. The last round of southerly winds broke shorefast away along the northern coast, but some areas still remain. Between Gambell and Niyakpak Lagoon, shorefast ice extends up to 4 miles (6.5 km) away from the coast. Another area between Taphook Point and Kangee Camp extends up to 2.5 miles (4 km) away from the coast. East of Savoonga, a large portion of shorefast broke away, but shorefast remains from roughly Cape Kitnik through Camp Kulowiye up to 2 miles (3.2 km) from the coast. Shorefast from the east side through the south side of the island remains unchanged. The largest shorefast extent is in Oomeyaluk Bay, out up to 7 miles (11 km) from the coast. Very close pack of first year medium ice with small to vast floes exists from north of Savoonga through the east side of the island.

Nome

Shorefast ice remains unchanged from the previous week and extends up to 2 miles (3 km) offshore along the Nome coast, with the exception of up to 7 miles (11 km) offshore near Sledge Island. Beyond the shorefast ice is an area of open water that extends up to 13 mi (21 km) from the shorefast ice. Beyond the open water is open pack ice southwest of Nome to close pack ice southeast of Nome.

Nome port entrance webcam (via AOOS webpage): https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/?ls=79875242-e362-65cb-914e-fed20ff9…

Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area

The outlook for this area has not yet begun for the season.

Wales to Shishmaref

The outlook for this area has not yet begun for the season.

Diomede

Shorefast ice remains between Big and Little Diomede with 9.5 miles (15.3 km) of north/south extent. Open water extends from 4.5 mi (7.2 km) east of Diomede to Wales. Otherwise, close pack ice exists of first year medium ice consisting of small to big floes.

Forecast Discussion

Ice Forecast

For St. Lawrence Island, an incoming front will bring stronger southerly winds to the area, which will put shorefast ice along the north side of the island at risk of breaking off. Regardless of shorefast, expect a large polynya to open up by the end of the weekend. Monday and Tuesday, northerly winds return which will bring close pack ice back to the coast.

For the Nome area coastline, southerly winds over the weekend will bring pack ice back to the northern coast/shorefast ice, closing off the existing polynya. The predominately southerly winds will encourage the pack ice to flow out of Norton Sound toward Port Clarence through next week.

For Diomede, southerly winds will keep a stream of close pack ice coming around the island. By the end of the weekend, the southerlies should close off the open water between Diomede and Wales with close pack ice. Early next week, northerly winds return which should bring more areas of open pack ice, or open water, especially toward Wales.

Wind Synopsis

Light and variable winds will continue through Friday outside of 5–15 kts (6–17 mph) southwest winds off the coast of Wales. Sustained winds pick up Saturday late morning out of the south to 15 to 25 kts (17–29 mph) with 25 to 35 kts (29–40 mph) along the southern side of the Seward Peninsula, gusting 30 to 40 kts (35-46 mph). These winds will persist until moving up the coast on Sunday morning and taper off for the evening. Monday will see increased winds from St. Lawrence Island to Wales around 15 to 25 kts (17–29 mph). After Monday, winds will be primarily 5 to 10 kts (6–11 mph) and variable winds direction next week.

Temperature Trend

St. Lawrence Island and Bering Strait will see temperatures in the mid to high 30s with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s, increasing through next week.

For Nome, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and low 40s with lows in the mid 20s and 30s, increasing through next week.

Diomede will see temperatures in the low to mid 30s with lows in the mid to upper 20s, increasing through next week.

Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates

The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice

Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview

The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.

Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast

Remote Sensing Images

Observations and Comments

Observations of Sea Ice Development

Additional Comments Provided by Local Experts and Other Contributors