Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus
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Synopsis: A low pressure trough over the Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound will persist into this weekend then weaken. High pressure over the Chukotsk Peninsula and Chukchi Sea will move west this weekend. A cold front well north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will move south over the Chukchi Sea on Saturday and south over Norton Sound and the northern Bering Sea on Sunday, then push south over the southern Bering Sea on Monday. The cold front will push west across the Bering Sea next week as a warmer low-pressure trough moves over the west coast of Alaska from Wednesday through Friday next week.
Near St. Lawrence Island
Ice-free conditions extend from Gambell southward around nearly the entire southern coastline of the island. There are areas of very open to open pack ice made up of ice cakes to small floes 12 miles (19 km) east of Gambell. Very close pack ice with some medium embedded floes exist between Apatiki Camp and Kangee Camp. Very open to open pack ice lies between Kangee Camp and Savoonga. From Savoonga eastward, there is a strip of very close pack ice against the coast through Ataakas Camp that extends up to 2 miles (3.2 km). Between Camp Iveetok and Camp Kulowiyi is close to very close pack ice with medium to big floes. This area of pack ice is flowing around the eastern side of the island, and is the main area of pack ice left in the Bering Sea.
Nome
Shorefast ice has broken away from the Nome coastline. Some areas are lingering between Sledge Island and Port Safety, but these areas could break away at any time. Otherwise, there is open water with several areas of open to very open pack ice with brash to small floes. There are areas of close pack ice 2 miles (3.2 km) southeast of Nome and 5 miles (8km) southwest of Nome. These are small to big floes.
Nome port entrance webcam (via AOOS webpage): https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/?ls=79875242-e362-65cb-914e-fed20ff9…
Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area
Shorefast ice remains within the area from Port Clarence to Brevig Mission. To the west of Port Clarence, open water extends to Wales and Ukivok with brash ice to ice cakes.
Wales to Shishmaref
Shorefast ice extends up to 4 miles (6 km) offshore except up to 14 miles (23 km) offshore near Wales, with no changes over the last week. Beyond the shorefast ice is close pack ice comprised of medium to big floes. North of Shishmaref by 13 miles (20 km) is an area of very open to open pack ice that extends up to 80 miles (128 km) to the north. It is comprised of small to big floes. Another area of open pack ice exists 40 miles (64 km) to the north of Wales. Open water is coming through the Bering Strait to the west of Wales.
Diomede
Some compact ice remains between the islands and extends 2 to 4 miles (3.2 to 6.4 km) northwest of Diomede. There is open water to the north, west, and south of Big Diomede up to 3 miles (4.8 km) offshore. Otherwise, there is open pack ice around Diomede up to 6 to 8 miles (9.6 to 12 km) north and east of the island. Open pack ice extends southward up to 30 miles (48 km). The open pack ice is comprised of small to big floes. Beyond the open water and open pack ice is close to very close pack ice with medium to big floes.
Forecast Discussion
Ice Forecast
Generally light winds will keep most ice moving with tides and currents through early Saturday. Saturday through the middle of next week, strengthening northerly winds will move ice back southward, continuing to open the water between Wales and Nome. The remaining pack ice will stay compacted against the northeastern coastline of St. Lawrence Island as well as the Wales to Shishmaref coastline.
Wind Synopsis
North 13 to 18 kt (14–20 mph), except east 5 to 10 kt (6–11 mph) at Nome Thursday (30 May) through Friday (31 May).
Saturday, winds will increase to north 22 to 32 kt (25–37 mph), except north 10 to 15 kt (11–17 mph at Nome). Winds will continue like this Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
Winds become NE 10–20 kt (11–22 mph) Wednesday and remain like this Thursday.
Winds will decrease to 5–15 kt (6–17 mph) next Friday.
Temperature Trend
In the 30s today through Saturday, except 40s and 50s at Nome.
Sunday temps falling into the 20s and lower 30s, except in the 30s and 40s at Nome.
Little change in temps Monday and Tuesday.
Temps warming Wednesday into 30s, except in the mid 30s to near 50 at Nome.
Thursday and Friday will see lower 30s to lower 40s, except near 40 to near 60 at Nome.
Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates
The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice
Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview
The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.
Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast
Remote Sensing Images
Observations and Comments
Observations of Sea Ice Development
Observations from Port Clarence, Brevig Mission, and Cape Douglas
Thursday, 30 May 2024 – Marcus Barr
Many crews had a successful walrus hunt this spring. Shorefast ice is breaking up closer to Brevig and is now about 4 miles west. Shorefast ice in front of town is rotten and not safe also as temperatures was 60 and over pass couple days.
Observations from Shishmaref
Tuesday, 28 May 2024 – Curtis Nayokpuk
Polar View shows rivers draining out and boat launch blocked in with Northerly winds. Most boats and crews back in town with snow mobile trails deteriorating with loss of soft snow top layer from recent rain and warm temps exposing hard icy winter surface.
Observations from Diomede
Friday, 31 May 2024 – Marty Eeleengayouq Ozenna
We’re about 20–25 knots north wind, have water spots growing on the ice but still sticking between the islands.
Observations from Wales
Friday, 31 May 2024 – Robert Tokeinna, Jr.
Warm out today finally, lot of water around the area, cool and breezy past week. It finally is warm today. The Village Creek is running, a crew was busy digging a trench. The local boat crew had a successful hunt of seals last week and the week before. Our shorefast ice is coming off piece by piece but remains strong on to the beach. Lots of snow near Wales. The flow ice is about 10 to 15 miles south above King Island and in between Wales and Diomede Islands today.
Observations from Savoonga
Saturday, 1 June 2024 – Aqef Waghiyi
Wind 22 knots from north, 28 degrees, barometer 980, humidity 78, cross wind 18 knots. Few days ago some boats had went out and some got walrus and some got bearded seal.
Additional Comments Provided by Local Experts and Other Contributors
Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 29 May – 6 June 2024
Visit the SIWO Facebook page @seaiceforwalrus to view this animation showing the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).
